TUPAC back

The TUPAC method of mentally calculating equity
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1. Tally Up the hand combinations
2. Pair combos to known equities
3. Analyze unpaired combos
4. Combine the analysis to estimate.

Tally Up, Pair, Analyze Combine = TUPAC

Lets illustrate this method by analysing a hand using it, and using a traditional pen and paper/Pokerstove analysis of the same hand.


5/10 NLH 6
Max Game 100bb stacks
Co opens to 35, we 3 bet OTB to 125 with KsQs, SB/BB fold, CO calls.

Pot Size = 265
Flop: Kc 9c 8d

We cbet 200, Villain shoves for 875, the pot is 1340 and it costs us 675 to call.

We estimate Villains range to be AA, KK, 99, 88, AQ/AJ/AT/A8cc, 98s, JTs, 78c, 76s, QJ/QTcc

Pokerstove tells us that against this range we have 35% equity. Our EV calc shows that the EV of a call is +$30.25.

Using the TUPAC method

Step 1 : Tally Up Hand Combos

We break the hands into 3 categories. Hands that crush us, those we're flipping with, and those we're decent favourites over.

Crushing us: AA, KK, 99, 88 (13 hand combos)
Flipping: AQ/AJ/AT/A8/QJ/QT/JT/78/67cc (9 hand combos)
Favourites: 67s/JTs (6 hand combos) [ Not 8 becase JTcc/67cc are in the flipping section]
Other: 98s

Step 2 : Pair combos to known equities

By combining the equity of hands that have us crushed (~0% equity) vs those that we are flipping with (~50% equity) we can average the result to about 25-30% equity, depening on how badly we are crushed. If we combine the 9 combos that we are flipping with to 9 of the 15 combos that dominate us, and then take into account the fact thar there are 4 combos of crushing hands left over, we can estimate the result towards the middle of the 25/30% average, so about 27%.

Step 3 : Analyze unpaired combos

The combos we have not paired up are JTs/76s (6 combos) and the 98s.

There are 3 combos of 98s which we are a 3:1 dog against.
There are 3 combos of JTs which we are a 3:1 favourite against (as we have one of the outs)
We can use these to average each other out (this is an extension of step 2)

This leaves us with just the 67s, which we are about a 2:1 favourite over.
67s makes up abut 1/8th of Villains range (3 over the other 25 combos).
If we are a 2:1 favourite, 1/8th of the time, that adds about 8% equity to our total (66% of 12.5% = 8%)

Step 4 : Combine the analysis to estimate

Adding the estimates from earlier (27% plus 8%) it gives us about 35% equity against this range. Which is the same result as the Pokerstove analysis.

This may seem longwinded, but is actually a pretty simple way of estimating equitie at the table. This is a guideline on how to do so, a players thought process at the table might not be so accurate but might go something like this:

"When I get check raise all in, I doubt he ever has a pure bluff. I also don't think he has AK as he would 4 bet pre. I think his range is most likely sets, AA, two pair with 89, big draws and open ended straight draw. There are probably about 10 combos of big flush draws pre depending on how many suited Aces and suited broadway cards he calls out of position with. He probably has a set or AA about as often as he has a combo draw so I can average that part of his range out to somewhere about 25/30%. He can have me in bad shape with his two pair hands but he can have two OESD which I'm in decent shape against. Because he has more OESD combos than 2 pair combos, that pushes my equity up a few % points to aboout 33%. Because I'm getting 2 to 1 pot odds and have somewhere about 33% equity, I know this is a close situation and will have to rely on my read of how frustrating my opponent is and how wide his range is to make my decision."