A
good way to think about these steal and resteal numbers is to figure
out what % of the pot you have to claim postflop to make your
semibluff steals greater than or neutral EV.
For example, if you have a 61% sb steal success rate and open to 3bb bvb, then you risk 2.5 to win 1.5, needing to be successful 62.5% for 0ev given 0 postflop equity. With your 61% steal success, you only have to claim 1.5% of the postflop pot on average to be breakeven on that steal. A decent way to model postflop equity share as a very rough guess might be (raw equity vs range (.8)) + (3betfreq(0)), which will give us 80% of our equity when we see a flop to account for our positional disadvantage and gives us 0% of our equity when 3bet, assuming we always fold our steal. So, if we think he folds 61%, calls 25% and 3bets 14% and we hold J7hh we get something like .61 success (1.5 pot) + (.41 equity * .25 call freq * .8) (6bb pot) + (.14) (-2.5) = .915 + .492 - .35 for a total of +1.057 bb on the steal.
Use a similar model to get an idea for other hands/other positions.
(note : its not just about raw equity, but also equity distribution (polarized range nuts x air plays better oop) and playability / realizing the equity)
For example, if you have a 61% sb steal success rate and open to 3bb bvb, then you risk 2.5 to win 1.5, needing to be successful 62.5% for 0ev given 0 postflop equity. With your 61% steal success, you only have to claim 1.5% of the postflop pot on average to be breakeven on that steal. A decent way to model postflop equity share as a very rough guess might be (raw equity vs range (.8)) + (3betfreq(0)), which will give us 80% of our equity when we see a flop to account for our positional disadvantage and gives us 0% of our equity when 3bet, assuming we always fold our steal. So, if we think he folds 61%, calls 25% and 3bets 14% and we hold J7hh we get something like .61 success (1.5 pot) + (.41 equity * .25 call freq * .8) (6bb pot) + (.14) (-2.5) = .915 + .492 - .35 for a total of +1.057 bb on the steal.
Use a similar model to get an idea for other hands/other positions.
(note : its not just about raw equity, but also equity distribution (polarized range nuts x air plays better oop) and playability / realizing the equity)
