Showing posts with label sauce123. Show all posts
Showing posts with label sauce123. Show all posts

Wednesday, 1 May 2013

constructing Stealing & Defending ranges


A good way to think about these steal and resteal numbers is to figure out what % of the pot you have to claim postflop to make your semibluff steals greater than or neutral EV.

For example, if you have a 61% sb steal success rate and open to 3bb bvb, then you risk 2.5 to win 1.5, needing to be successful 62.5% for 0ev given 0 postflop equity. With your 61% steal success, you only have to claim 1.5% of the postflop pot on average to be breakeven on that steal. A decent way to model postflop equity share as a very rough guess might be (raw equity vs range (.8)) + (3betfreq(0)), which will give us 80% of our equity when we see a flop to account for our positional disadvantage and gives us 0% of our equity when 3bet, assuming we always fold our steal. So, if we think he folds 61%, calls 25% and 3bets 14% and we hold J7hh we get something like .61 success (1.5 pot) + (.41 equity * .25 call freq * .8) (6bb pot) + (.14) (-2.5) = .915 + .492 - .35 for a total of +1.057 bb on the steal. 

Use a similar model to get an idea for other hands/other positions.


(note : its not just about raw equity, but also equity distribution (polarized range nuts x air plays better oop) and playability / realizing the equity)

Friday, 5 April 2013

I dont care how you play

a near-optimal strategy in poker wins against just about any strategy an opponent is likely to play. This means we can ignore our opponent’s strategy most of the time and still expect to have a healthy winrate. If you’re an online player who multi-tables, ignoring your opponent’s strategy frees up a massive amount of attention.

Friday, 14 September 2012

Wildly aggressive player who was very good at finding the places his opponents were too loose and relentlessly attacking their weak ranges. - Opponents who 3bet far too wide, aren't aware of it,..