Friday, 14 June 2024

dozeer hands

my open HJ vs BTN flat K8s

flop KJ9s cbet/call, turn 2s bet/raise/call, river Js completes my flush

Hero? 

Villain range on river: 

hands i beat that call shove: 3x QTs, 3x QTo (out of 12 - not flatting all pre, some raise flop), 1x lower fd that bluff-raised turn (e.g. T8s) = 7-8 combos (K9s?)

beat me: 2x 99, 1x Axss that he chose to play this way (out of AQs,ATs,A9s), 2x KJo (out of 4 he chose to not raise flop with), 2x J9s, 1x QTs = 8 combos

->> more of his combos that call my shove have me beat, and he's only going to bet hands that have me beat

things to consider: I am blocking some of his KJ; he's got very few fd i beat that took this line (if any!?); rake if i shove. turn pot odds: 26%

=>> block & fold to raise the best


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