EV =/= Equity

sometimes u gonna have a hand that has over 50% equity and gonna have to fold it

other times ull have a hand thats have only 15-20% equity and its gonna be incredibly +EV super ez call

basic math

#1
we cbet flop oop 6bb into 8bb. If we bet the turn 50% of the time, how often do we need to x/call or x/raise the turn so we prevent our opp to profitably peel w pure air OTF if we assume he'll bet 14bb into 20bb on the turn?

-6bb*(0.5) - 20bb(x) + 14(1-0.5-x) = 12%

#2
opp opens 3b in SB we 3bet to 10bb in BB he 4bets to 20bb we jam 100bb total.

how often does our 5bet bluff need to succeed if our hand has 33% eq?

200*33% = 66bb -> we get back when he calls
we lose 24bb when bluff fails cos we risk only 90bb (10 already in the pot)
we win 20+10 if bluff succeeds.

30bb(x) - 24bb(1-x) = 0, so x = 44,4%

FACT bet sizing

if we cbet 3/4 psb each street and flop pot size is 8bb

final pot size = 8bb * 2.5^3 = 125bb

FACT

Matt Janda's vids so good for my game

omg Understanding Equity just made me realize I know nothing about this wicked game and insta improved my w/r by at least 1bb /100

I love this game.

Aejones - "always be protected" / Janda - "I very, very rarely will pull a big bluff with bad randomizers"

-> getting the nuts 10% of the time on the riv for free is HUGE

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cbetting and significance of polarizing a range.
- is it better to cbet T9hh on a QT4r board or x/call? What variables determine this?

- 16bi downswing and counting.. //

spewing a lot lately, time to put my tight solid mode on, stop tryin to outplay everybody. give them some credit.

fold more
less peel 1 and give up. know when u can expect 2nd barrel with high freq

barreling

good turn cards to barrel - scare cards that dont hit their entire range

QT6ss, turn is 3s

dbl & triple barrel weak plrs when their ranges are face up and weak