poker mafs 101 - key ratios

key ratios (Tombos21)

Pot odds = Risk / Reward of calling = River bluffing %

Alpha = Risk /Reward of bluffing = 1 - MDF

EV = Win%[Reward] - Lose%[Risk]

core concepts

10 core concepts

Continuation / Value Thresholds

Hero BB v BTN open, flop JT6ss, BTN cbets 75% - know where your continuation threshold is - if they bet only 1/3 pot, we are continuing much wider.

- try to find the shape of the range

Maximise EV, not how often you win a pot

sometimes the best play involves taking a line that either wins a huge pot or more often than not loses a small pot (e.g., don't bee too focused on "protecting" made hands from draws, etc. in order to sacrifice the most +EV line for your overall range)

Nut advantage & Polarized range

The nut advantage dictates how much you can polarize, and how large you can bet. Betting larger and more aggressively narrows your opponent’s range quickly, so it’s important that your “value” hands can extract money from villain’s value hands after triple barreling. For that reason, BTN must use a polarized strategy consisting of nuts and bluffs. If BTN were to do this with medium-strength hands they would simply fold out worse and get called by better.

with middling equity advantage, we push our middling equity using small-medium bet sizes -> Bet size is directly related to nut advantage

It’s easier to over-bluff rivers

as the optimal value-to-bluff ratios are more restrictive (towards bluffing) than on earlier streets.

- if you find yourself on the river facing a bet, try to estimate if your opponent is bluffing enough according to this cheat sheet. If they are bluffing just a single combo more than they should, all of our indifferent bluff catchers become profitable calls and vice versa (we always fold when they are under-bluffing even slightly).

- when villain has over-bluffed earlier streets, they arrive on the river with more bluffs than in theory, making it even easier to get out of line on the river.

The Ultimate Guide to Studying GTO Poker Solutions / Exploitative 101

Underlying principles:

- studying GTO - figure out why it tells you to play certain range in a certain way

PRO TIP: compare the ranges - range asymmetries reveal most of the reasons (the why) behind strategies -> allows you to hone in on your heuristics

Simplifying:

- Clumping by hand class

- Thresholds: 

                        - what class of hands am I folding? look at Filters, see at what hand class the blue line starts

- Heuristics:

    - betting more often lower PP than higher PP on A33r type of flop - for protection/fold equity to fold out hands like J9. with KK we don't mind him hitting his pair on turn, river

Hot keys

Post-flop mode: Shift+left/right increases/dec turn card value - to experiment an see how are the strategies changing - see how different run outs affect different portions of your range

fish & reg profiling (NL25 zoom poool)

equity-driven betting post flop

regs:

3bet ranges IP: 

    - AQ, AK in CO v MP open

squeeze IP:    AK (2x)

4bet OOP:    KK, AQ

5bet shove: 

- BTN/CO - QQ, AK, 

donks 1/2 pot - rivered flush

ch/r my 1/3 pot range bet - gives up

Set: 

- in 3b pot IP- calls cbet on AT4ss, check back turn, raise river all-in

- raise flop 3way

fish:

SRP:

- floats overcards - fish opens BTN, checks back 8xx flop, calls 1/2 pot bet brick turn w naked KQ

- donks 1/2 pot flop - folds to 3x raise; air

3bet pot

- min clicks flop - TP (KQ on K94r)

PF 3bet ranges 

- min clicks KK, ..

- 4bet all-in OOP 60bb deep - 66

dozeer hands

my open HJ vs BTN flat K8s

flop KJ9s cbet/call, turn 2s bet/raise/call, river Js completes my flush

Hero? 

Villain range on river: 

hands i beat that call shove: 3x QTs, 3x QTo (out of 12 - not flatting all pre, some raise flop), 1x lower fd that bluff-raised turn (e.g. T8s) = 7-8 combos (K9s?)

beat me: 2x 99, 1x Axss that he chose to play this way (out of AQs,ATs,A9s), 2x KJo (out of 4 he chose to not raise flop with), 2x J9s, 1x QTs = 8 combos

->> more of his combos that call my shove have me beat, and he's only going to bet hands that have me beat

things to consider: I am blocking some of his KJ; he's got very few fd i beat that took this line (if any!?); rake if i shove. turn pot odds: 26%

=>> block & fold to raise the best

High Stakes Poker Coaching: How To Destroy NL100 (Full Length) [ShowOfForce]

 NL100

at these stakes ppl will really show you what they have with their sizing

(facing 1/2 pot riv block bet BTN v BB ww JJ on 86s85s3s - I'd raise for value)

stab 1/4 pot 

(flat call OTB, 3 way, QTd on 493d, checked to us. to get them off of overcards

check back w/ no bd draw. SB range much stronger here than BB flat call. with bd draw I'd start betting

K8s  CO open vs SB call, flop AQ3 

turn Q - our K is quite good here because we block KQ and he'd 3bet some of his AQ. don't mind attacking here with our K blocker his small sizing

be more flexible with sizings against weaker players

be more consistent with sizings against regs

bet 4/5 pot on AT8 with A8 to build the pot on good runouts

i like to overbet turn for value

recognise spots where his range is clearly capped, AND ours is not. 

- that 3way  Q92sss, BB v BTN & SB - capped once they both check, SB twice. 

- good spot to be overly aggressive with any sort of equity (gutshot + overcard,..)

- betting 3/4 turn once checked to me, then BIG on river - 3x pot

ship it: LP Longple on improvement

ship it: LP Longple on improvement: "The biggest thing i done so far probably is started thinking on my own, reading hands and ranges from simple logic breaking it down fr...