Lab 2.o - Check-Raise [Tim J]

 what is the objective of a x/r? what hand classes it punishes?

• denies EV to all the marginal hands that bet and then face a raise.

theory dynamics / mechanics:

- if we remove x/r, IP starts to stab all his marginal hands for the perfect sizing for each hand, then can check behind and navigate to the perfect pot size

Uri - Blueprint - working with solver [Range mechanics / heuristics]

https://members.upswingpoker.com/courses/drills-preflop-ranges/lessons/drilling-with-lucid-poker/

somehow skipped this vid

>>  some key nuggets / heuristics:

3:00 timestamp : how close in EV lot of the post-flop actions run (!) 

** EV loss is so tiny - any other factor (dynamics / image / player you feel (or not feel) comfortable playing against) easily outweighs it

6:20 timestamp : framework for post-flop decisions that run close / similar EV

11:30 timestamp - KK in BU v BB SRP:  2nd FD coming in on the turn - now there will be 2x more flushes on the river >> our hand wants a smaller pot

13:20 timestamp : river decision-making framework based on how "tricky | straightwfd" is our opponent 

BB Defense ranges

vs UTG / tight opens:

- the reason why A9o, KTo, QTo are folding and hands likes 74s are calling - these are "pot odds calls"

- they can improve vs UTG open range, while hands like KTo are often dominated

- we want hands that can make str8s, flushes, trips

as we face looser opens - our suited region doesn't change much, but we start adding more offsuit Ax, and offsuit broadways

BB vs SB 

- plus offsuit trashy hands = bluffing with our calling range once the calling range becomes very wide, we get to make these wide bluffs, avoiding the middle range

Uri - Blueprint - Key Concepts / Heuristics [re-read]

Bluffing

Overarching heuristics: (intuitively feel out an appropriate amount of aggression)

positions & board runout - determines how connected we should be to the board

MIMIC a hand that wants to bet, to tell consistent story

sticking to "good board / bad board" naturally keeps you to theoretically correct (!)

Exploit: "Discontinued Aggression": when opponent bets and then checks, they are often telling you "bluffing should make money for you here" -> bluffing should be the DEFAULT

(look at it from a "story-telling" perspective)

Draws

Always take your fold equity when you have a huge draw AND your opponent has a lot of potential folds

Hand reading and Visibility

A lot of players are far too often, too straightforward

JT3 BvB - if SB would bet his Jx but he checks back - BB can go 3 bets w a hand like KT

-> pay attention to the narrative, especial "discontinued lines"

-> one of the reasons for the "bet small everything" strat on the flop - to keep everything together, so you don't know where my weak hands are

Positional mechanics

As ranges get narrower, pocket pairs and suited cards are a higher portion of the range; hence, draws are more common postflop

As ranges get wider, there are more offsuit hands and lower proportion of st8s, flushes, sets and overpairs

• one pair hands go up in value:
• BvB overpair goes for stacks
• UTG v BB overpair: 3 bets

Hand selection PF

playing fluffy / marginal hands not in PF charts:

- 3betting 33 in SB v BB - zero-ish EV - any reason you want, go ahead and play it (you're board; you think you have an edge,..)

Random bits

playing KK post-flop metaphor  https://upswingpoker.com/pocket-kings-postflop-philosophy/

"Continuously re-evaluating your hand’s strength based on the board texture and betting action is a core principle of strong poker."

SRP vs 3bet pot heuristics

- ppl are much more aware in 3bet pots - in SRP they play much more face up (in terms of bet sizing tells,..)

- when pots get really big, they are hyper-focused, hyper-aware - they don't tank and do weak sizing with a weak hand

Nuances

Board with multiple high cards - all hands get devalued: 

- ppl play every suited Ax and Kx - suddenly every 2 pair is on the table

River bluff bet sizing heuristic 8:20 minute

(BB v BU call, we x/c T74r, turn 3 x/x, J river: 

- we need to decide what hand are we repping to have - a T or 7 = bet small | 98 or 65 = bet big. or bet small, get raised by a Jack and shove! :)

One card is NOT the same as two card STR8 / Flush

https://members.upswingpoker.com/courses/blueprint-in-action/lessons/what-are-straights-and-flushes-worth/

preflop mechanics

BTN open vs Rec in BB who 3bets small, nitty range AQs+, JJ+:

still call wide, but prefer hands w good implied odds vs dominated hands like AJo:

core concepts

10 core concepts

Continuation / Value Thresholds

Hero BB v BTN open, flop JT6ss, BTN cbets 75% - know where your continuation threshold is - if they bet only 1/3 pot, we are continuing much wider.

- try to find the shape of the range

Maximise EV, not how often you win a pot

sometimes the best play involves taking a line that either wins a huge pot or more often than not loses a small pot (e.g., don't bee too focused on "protecting" made hands from draws, etc. in order to sacrifice the most +EV line for your overall range)

Nut advantage & Polarized range

The nut advantage dictates how much you can polarize, and how large you can bet. Betting larger and more aggressively narrows your opponent’s range quickly, so it’s important that your “value” hands can extract money from villain’s value hands after triple barreling. For that reason, BTN must use a polarized strategy consisting of nuts and bluffs. If BTN were to do this with medium-strength hands they would simply fold out worse and get called by better.

with middling equity advantage, we push our middling equity using small-medium bet sizes -> Bet size is directly related to nut advantage

It’s easier to over-bluff rivers

as the optimal value-to-bluff ratios are more restrictive (towards bluffing) than on earlier streets.

- if you find yourself on the river facing a bet, try to estimate if your opponent is bluffing enough according to this cheat sheet. If they are bluffing just a single combo more than they should, all of our indifferent bluff catchers become profitable calls and vice versa (we always fold when they are under-bluffing even slightly).

- when villain has over-bluffed earlier streets, they arrive on the river with more bluffs than in theory, making it even easier to get out of line on the river.