executing JR ideas

this comment from Amos is great. takes a skill / savvy investor to execute right:

"when I trade, I always follow the procedure as the following:

1. the certainty of idea.
what percentage does the idea will have capital return. this is core of sizing the position, that why I exited the position of Spirit stock, Capri, or CLMT much earlier than Jeremy, because I felt uncomfortable about the return, feel a lot more uncertainty.

2.take time to add the position, the price is the key of return

I don’t rush to build a position when new idea come, I usually judge the catalst and margin of safety to determine when to add. even though, I did missed the EML position in lower 0.5, but I manage to keep it in 0.7 to 0.9, and profit them in 1.2, then add back in lower 0.9, because I sensed that the value don’t change, I could take time to add and sell in higher.

take your time , the catalyst doesn’t achieve over one night, the higher the price, the less return, the risk/reward ratio become ugly.

3. don’t concentrated fund to single or two asset. keep a balanced portfolio will survive and flourish.

if Subs feel uncomfortable about the steps listed above, I think Jeremy blog may not suit you, may be index fund have better return in the long run.

it would be wise to reconsider, if you really capable of investing stock, or just buy a index fund and have a happier life. I strongly recommend sub to quit if you don’t feel comfortable about investing stocks, it is naturally not fit for everyone"

bluffing with show down value [Uri pod]

bluffing with show down value:

Zooming in - A72r flop, BTN v BB

Bottom pairs overbetting certain turns (low FD cards, T-Q turns),  and shoving brick rivers 

FD completing rivers - bluffing with Nut FD blocker (Ks)

GS completing rivers - bluffing with low pair blocker

Draws miss river - can check back our bottom pair 

Uri does a good job breaking the concept and heuristics down on this pod

BB defense - when facing polarised range OOP, good hand type to call with is 

on e.g. T turn, KQ, KJ type hands - they beat all the bluffs, and can make super nuts on river and you get to x/shove.

How to construct Bluffing Range

https://blog.gtowizard.com/from-gutshots-to-airballs-choosing-your-bluffs

This is what makes K♠J♦ a nice bluffing candidate (BTN v BB on A97r 2s run out). It may not have much equity when called, but it has a surprising amount of EV because you can anticipate profitable bluffs when you hold the nut flush blocker on spade rivers. Essentially, this hand has implied odds on flush rivers just as a flush draw would. Rivering a blocker is not worth as much as rivering a flush, but both will result in a hand over-realizing its equity with a profitable bet.

Value of fold equity >> Taking the pot down immediately is worth more to some hands than others)

Flush draws have a better chance than airballs of winning if their bluff is called, but by the same token, they gain less from folds. When you successfully bluff a flush draw on the turn, you win a pot that you would have won about 20% of the time on the river anyway. When you take down the same pot with a hand like 6♣4♣, it’s worth more because that hand was never going to improve to a winner.

Raise size cheat sheet

 

balance between me time and family time

 this

exploitative 101

• Players who don’t study GTO gameplay over-bluff more spots than you might think
• Studying our continuing thresholds for common spots in equilibrium helps us identify which hands we will first need to adjust our strategy with to exploit their tendencies
• Studying the GTO strategy of our opponents helps us identify where they might be deviating from it

fun exploits to try:

that 86o 3b v rec in SB open, followed by 1/4 pot cbet w near zero equity on AT7 mono. gotta be careful in case he's calling 3bets with offsuit Ax

Jako: aggressive in spots where population overfolds - The easiest example is if you think villain is range betting flop on a texture where they’re supposed to check high frequency, then they will struggle to appropriately defend their range if they face raise.

tight fold vs under-bluffed spot/line

randomising / multiple lines with the same EV

So I don't typically randomise - it's not really necessary in an anonymous pool particularly. I'll generally think about what theory will do and if I think there are multiple lines with the same EV I'll say that and then just pick one. Often though you'll get spots where two lines are ok in theory but one line is preferred as an exploit, in which case i'll take that line 100% of the time. 

micro stakes imbalances:

- equity driven betting

- not enough bluffs when betting/raising > pot ? (betting 15 into 10, bluff needs to work 60% percent, opp getting 15/(15 + 25) = 37,5% on his call -> hero needs 37,5% bluffs in betting range

board coverage

are certain lines over or under saturated with certain hand classes?

for ex.:

- flush completing run outs - are they using a specific line for their FDs?

- paired flops

- top-heavy 3bet ranges (not enough SCs, wheel Aces)

-> that is why solver puts various hand classes in each line (in practice most humans tend to not do that -> they have a poor board coverage), so it can represent strong hands on a wide variety of boards

GTO Heuristics (the-right-way-to-think-about-protection, the-mechanics-of-c-bet-sizing)

 

Mechanics of (c)bet sizing:

https://docs.google.com/presentation/d/1NyqpbGrVDTQuhKIQ_5YGIXXE6WIr-fj6QqtlPz9iGWA/edit?usp=sharing

https://blog.gtowizard.com/the-right-way-to-think-about-protection/

https://blog.gtowizard.com/the-mechanics-of-c-bet-sizing/