Wednesday, 24 July 2024

How to construct Bluffing Range

https://blog.gtowizard.com/from-gutshots-to-airballs-choosing-your-bluffs

This is what makes KJ a nice bluffing candidate (BTN v BB on A97r 2s run out). It may not have much equity when called, but it has a surprising amount of EV because you can anticipate profitable bluffs when you hold the nut flush blocker on spade rivers. Essentially, this hand has implied odds on flush rivers just as a flush draw would. Rivering a blocker is not worth as much as rivering a flush, but both will result in a hand over-realizing its equity with a profitable bet.

Value of fold equity >> Taking the pot down immediately is worth more to some hands than others)

Flush draws have a better chance than airballs of winning if their bluff is called, but by the same token, they gain less from folds. When you successfully bluff a flush draw on the turn, you win a pot that you would have won about 20% of the time on the river anyway. When you take down the same pot with a hand like 64, it’s worth more because that hand was never going to improve to a winner.



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