fish & reg profiling (NL25 zoom poool)

equity-driven betting post flop

regs:

3bet ranges IP: 

    - AQ, AK in CO v MP open

squeeze IP:    AK (2x)

4bet OOP:    KK, AQ

5bet shove: 

- BTN/CO - QQ, AK, 

donks 1/2 pot - rivered flush

ch/r my 1/3 pot range bet - gives up

Set: 

- in 3b pot IP- calls cbet on AT4ss, check back turn, raise river all-in

- raise flop 3way

fish:

SRP:

- floats overcards - fish opens BTN, checks back 8xx flop, calls 1/2 pot bet brick turn w naked KQ

- donks 1/2 pot flop - folds to 3x raise; air

3bet pot

- min clicks flop - TP (KQ on K94r)

PF 3bet ranges 

- min clicks KK, ..

- 4bet all-in OOP 60bb deep - 66

dozeer hands

my open HJ vs BTN flat K8s

flop KJ9s cbet/call, turn 2s bet/raise/call, river Js completes my flush

Hero? 

Villain range on river: 

hands i beat that call shove: 3x QTs, 3x QTo (out of 12 - not flatting all pre, some raise flop), 1x lower fd that bluff-raised turn (e.g. T8s) = 7-8 combos (K9s?)

beat me: 2x 99, 1x Axss that he chose to play this way (out of AQs,ATs,A9s), 2x KJo (out of 4 he chose to not raise flop with), 2x J9s, 1x QTs = 8 combos

->> more of his combos that call my shove have me beat, and he's only going to bet hands that have me beat

things to consider: I am blocking some of his KJ; he's got very few fd i beat that took this line (if any!?); rake if i shove. turn pot odds: 26%

=>> block & fold to raise the best

High Stakes Poker Coaching: How To Destroy NL100 (Full Length) [ShowOfForce]

 NL100

at these stakes ppl will really show you what they have with their sizing

(facing 1/2 pot riv block bet BTN v BB ww JJ on 86s85s3s - I'd raise for value)

stab 1/4 pot 

(flat call OTB, 3 way, QTd on 493d, checked to us. to get them off of overcards

check back w/ no bd draw. SB range much stronger here than BB flat call. with bd draw I'd start betting

K8s  CO open vs SB call, flop AQ3 

turn Q - our K is quite good here because we block KQ and he'd 3bet some of his AQ. don't mind attacking here with our K blocker his small sizing

be more flexible with sizings against weaker players

be more consistent with sizings against regs

bet 4/5 pot on AT8 with A8 to build the pot on good runouts

i like to overbet turn for value

recognise spots where his range is clearly capped, AND ours is not. 

- that 3way  Q92sss, BB v BTN & SB - capped once they both check, SB twice. 

- good spot to be overly aggressive with any sort of equity (gutshot + overcard,..)

- betting 3/4 turn once checked to me, then BIG on river - 3x pot

ship it: LP Longple on improvement

ship it: LP Longple on improvement: "The biggest thing i done so far probably is started thinking on my own, reading hands and ranges from simple logic breaking it down fr...

SLA.AX

missed out on this one - stopped following after it become even more hairy..

lesson learned - peruse every research piece that JR puts out

biggest spews/fomo in 2022

BWMX earnings bet

buying/adding to USO calls at the top, at the beginning of the Russia Ukraine escalation

XLY puts - should've sold when they doubled w only 2m expiry. also should've acknowledged it was just a punt (not a proper hedge), didn't put in the work in the thesis. strong consumer

KSPI - butchered the trade - sold at the bottom (didn't stick to it like JR did)

ASPS - (BREAKOUT) MOMENTUM trade w/o a STOP LOSS

FOMO

TWTR

AMPY (continued into 2023 - settlement of $85mm on an extant $320mm mkt cap on 1/3/23)

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