Lab 2.o - Bet Sizing

!concept!:

• then on turn, modern becomes more like the big bets strat - big hands & bluffs start betting big on turn & river, small hands check back and see the river and face the same issue (but you're already on the last street so you don't need to worry/protect as much)

• solver is going to prefer one or the other strat - based on your range: 
• lot of middling hands - small bet strategy
• lot of strong hands - polarised big bet strat

= huge concepts that you can study for a long time

• by seeing someone's bet size, you can start to understand what their range construction likely is (what types of hands you gonna see when they check / bet small / bet big)

Uri: "a lot of pros have 1size flop 1size turn and 2-3 sizes on rivers"

Overbets

Bottom line: When you have the nuts, Overbetting makes you more money:

* opponent calling frequency according to MDF

As your (value) hand gets further away from the nuts (i.e. you lose more and more the times you get called), overbetting makes less and less sense

For overbets to make sense, a large portion of our range should be the effective nuts

BU open vs BB, flop JT4ss 2c 8c

- simply c-betting range B33 on all textures is very effective strat

- turn: now if our opponent just calls flop (assuming he'd raise most 2P+); AJ, KJ are the effective nuts - solver goes for B190

- river: Q9, 97 get there, but he should be folding these on the turn -> AJ still the effective nuts -> solver goes for a shove

- "Nuts" doesn't have to be 100% Equity - AJ with 90% is plenty:

B33 flop, 2x turn, shove river = very standard sizing line

Geometric Bet Sizing 

- spreading bets over multiple streets makes you more money (on each street opponent calls and folds some hands), compared to getting all the money in on one street

- important especially in low SPR spots (3bet, 4bet pots)

4-to a straight board (KQJT) - river bet sizing mechanics:

because we both have the nuts a lot, we have to size down to get called by worse