calling a turn barrel

anytime ur gona fold the best hand or call w/ worse on the river (while having <50% equity), ur losing money on your turn call.

The more optimal bluffing freq hes gonna have otr, the more money ur gonna lose

constructing Stealing & Defending ranges

A good way to think about these steal and resteal numbers is to figure out what % of the pot you have to claim postflop to make your semibluff steals greater than or neutral EV.

For example, if you have a 61% sb steal success rate and open to 3bb bvb, then you risk 2.5 to win 1.5, needing to be successful 62.5% for 0ev given 0 postflop equity. With your 61% steal success, you only have to claim 1.5% of the postflop pot on average to be breakeven on that steal. A decent way to model postflop equity share as a very rough guess might be (raw equity vs range (.8)) + (3betfreq(0)), which will give us 80% of our equity when we see a flop to account for our positional disadvantage and gives us 0% of our equity when 3bet, assuming we always fold our steal. So, if we think he folds 61%, calls 25% and 3bets 14% and we hold J7hh we get something like .61 success (1.5 pot) + (.41 equity * .25 call freq * .8) (6bb pot) + (.14) (-2.5) = .915 + .492 - .35 for a total of +1.057 bb on the steal. 

Use a similar model to get an idea for other hands/other positions.

(note : its not just about raw equity, but also equity distribution (polarized range nuts x air plays better oop) and playability / realizing the equity)

BvB optimal strat

SB:

Alice opens in SB 35%

Alice 4-bets {88+,AJs,AQo} for value
Alice 4-bets {AJo-A7o,ATs-A7s} as bluffs

(! different strat than 35% open from outside the blinds, cos both players already put money in the pot)

BB:

• 3-bet value range (including 5-bet bluffs): {JJ+,AK,A5s-A2s} =56 combos
• 3-bet bluff range: {A6o-A2o,K8o,Q8o} =84 combos
• Flatting range: {TT-22,ATs-A6s,AJo-A7o,K8s+,K9o+,Q8s+,Q9o+,J7s+,J9o+,T7s+,T8o+96s+,86s+,75s+,65s} =362 combos

I dont care how you play

a near-optimal strategy in poker wins against just about any strategy an opponent is likely to play. This means we can ignore our opponent’s strategy most of the time and still expect to have a healthy winrate. If you’re an online player who multi-tables, ignoring your opponent’s strategy frees up a massive amount of attention.

loving my game right now. playing prolly my best 6max game ever

on mastery

There are two other major elements researchers have found when it comes to attaining mastery. They are, famously, 10,000 hours of deliberate practice, and an experienced mentor. 

opp modeling

"When you are observing your opponent, try to pay attention to every spot, and consciously try to generalize what that spot tells you about his play in general. That is, look at specifics, and try to see how they fit into the overall pattern of his strategy or tendencies. Again, this does not happen automatically – or if it does, it does so very weakly. Force yourself to actively and thoroughly process all of the information you’re receiving – to notice it, interpret it, and update your mental model of your opponent.

One of the best ways to do this is by talking through it (either aloud, or in your head). For example, if you see someone is checking back lots of draws on the turn, tell yourself “he is checking back lots of draws on this turn, which means he’s fairly risk-averse, he’s not semi-bluffing much, his range is strongly weighted toward value, I should be willing to put him on draws by the river,” and so on."