Pr0digy - Using solvers to crush HS

vid

• Once you get to a certain level, you just need the solver to orient you.

• Every HS reg should know all the basic nodelocks and what resuly they're going to produce (w/o having to check them)
• Once you've done enough of them - some of the results are not intutitive - but you see them enough times and you make sense of them

• Mostly looking in the solver to make sure your instincts were in the right ballpark

Boards Classification [simples] [Uri/Jungle]

Uri:

try to see as many characteristics so you can generalize:

(for ex. when not to fire turn or river bluff vs rec, or when 

• (is it ace + broadway tight formation? )
• (is it the flush coming in or regardless?)

CO v BU - BU is not calling any offsuit 9x, Tx - I'm gonna be pretty aggro on these boards

Lab 2.o - Check-Raise [Tim J]

 what is the objective of a x/r? what hand classes it punishes?

• denies EV to all the marginal hands that bet and then face a raise.

theory dynamics / mechanics:

- if we remove x/r, IP starts to stab all his marginal hands for the perfect sizing for each hand, then can check behind and navigate to the perfect pot size

spot analysis - should-you-ever-bluff-with-a-pair (x/r dynamics on dry Kxx BB v BTN)

 cool spot breakdown article, with broadly applicable heuristics

https://blog.gtowizard.com/should-you-ever-bluff-with-a-pair/

bet sizing - later streets (turn + river)

[fine to slow play flop as long as we make up for it on later streets]

nuts/ nut blocker - you should seriously consider a geometric bet on the turn, no matter how large. If they fold, you probably wouldn’t have won much anyway. When the reward for winning the maximum is so large, that reward is worth pursuing at the expense of missing out on the occasional smaller bet from weaker hands.

The only time extreme, multi-street slow-playing really makes sense is when you block a lot of the hands likely to pay off large bets (e.g. top set blocking TP combos). In those cases, it makes sense to hunt for smaller game with less ambitious bets. 

https://blog.gtowizard.com/maximizing-monsters-in-deep-stacked-scenarios/

GTO rarely uses a geometric strategy before the turn, as ranges are too close and equity too dynamic. Equities crystalize on later streets and ranges become more polar, incentivizing geometric bet sizes. When equities run much closer and can shift more easily on early streets, this is not the case.

calling a turn barrel

anytime ur gona fold the best hand or call w/ worse on the river (while having <50% equity), ur losing money on your turn call.

The more optimal bluffing freq hes gonna have otr, the more money ur gonna lose

on exploiting

theory:

To exploit a non-optimal strategy maximally, we have to make extreme adjustments. Even if the mistake we're exploiting isn't extreme.

practice:

Moderate Adjustments:

But if you think they will catch on and fight back more, you might be better of in the long run showing some moderation. 

Your task is then to find a sweet spot that balances your desire to steal a lot with your desire to keep your opponent in a tight state where you can continue to steal a lot.
So on the long run it might be better for you to steal something like 80%, and fold the absolute garbage hands like 83o, 62o, etc. They might be profitable opening hands in isolation, here and now, but if you open 100% of your hands, your profit from stealing on the button might decrease in the long run.

facing 3bet OOP // facing open IP

optimal strategy pairs for various open-ranges OOP (Alice), together with Bob's lists of 3-bet-bluff hands and flatting hands IP:

Alice opens 15%: Bob plays 15.8% (with 3-bet% =3.6%)
Alice opens 20%: Bob plays 17.0% (with 3-bet% =5.3%)
Alice opens 25%: Bob plays 19.2% (with 3-bet% =8.7%)
Alice opens 30%: Bob plays 19.5% (with 3-bet% =9.4%)
Alice opens 35%: Bob plays 20.3% (with 3-bet% =10.2%)
Alice opens 40%: Bob plays 20.3% (with 3-bet% =10.2%)

BTN open facing 3bet // blinds facing BTN open

optimal strat for opening 35% btn facing a 3bet:

4-bet {QQ+,AK} =34 combos for value
4-bet {ATo,A9s-A7s} =24 combos as a bluff
Flat {JJ-88,AQ-AJ,ATs,KQ-KJ,KTs,QJ,QTs,JTs} =120 combos

optimal strat for a villain facing my open:

- defend about 17% of the time (more when flatting)
- value 62 combos AQ+,TT+ (we 3bet/ 5bet these)
- flat 70 combos 

- bluff 100 combos (see Equilab stored range)

it's mostly button openraising that forces the blinds to defend very aggressively, and that we can play much tighter against raises from earlier positions

vs 2x btn open blinds have to defend 43% combined


vs 3x open its 33% combined (~17% each blind, BB should defend more)


^^ this is true when we defend by 3-betting. if we defend by flatting, we have to use 1.5 call multiplier, because we let btn see flop and realize some equity.

equity distribution

polarized KK72r
smooth - JT98ds

• All of the transitions between monster, strong, good, medium, weak and air flops are smooth
• There are many situations where as a function of opp tendencies, SPR or several other factors we would like to be able to subtly adjust our thresholds for a particular action, such as x/raising, stacking off, floating or donking. With KK72r its difficult to do cos the hand is extremely inflexible. Conversely, JT98ds is comfortable in nearly every situation.

fact

one of the biggest mistakes

- when you fold the best hand on late streets

- folding nuts on the flop much <<<<<< smaller mistake than folding on the river

-->> proper 3 barreling & proper plan for the remaining streets on the flop == huge winrate boost !!

fact - blinds defense

How often do the blinds need to defend combined to prevent the btn to open profitably ATC ?
(if they only defend by 3betting - if u defend by flatting u need to defend even more obv cos hes got to see 3cards and will realize some of his equity)

-> 37.5 % (2.5bb btn open)

on flop play

• Ppl only think the turn is the hardest street to play in poker because people play the flop so poorly.
• Balanced betting ranges make dbl/triple barreling very easy.
• Picking the right types of bluffs and using the right ratio of bluffs makes the following street very easy.

If u pick the right types of hands to bluff the flop with, lots of the times ull get almost spoon fed what turns you should bluff (lil SD value but good amount of Equity).

Than on the riv u usually wanna bluff with hands that have rly good removal effect,..

On the flop we dont have our bluffs nicely handed to us, its much more diff to know what to do

mixing it up on th flop (simplified)

- on very dry boards, u wanna raise much less

- on very wet boards, there are usually so many turn cards that put nut type hands into your range that you want to raise now for protection and know you can be strong on most turn cards anyways.

- when the board is in between, then u shoyuld slowplay some biog hands and raise some so your range is protected on the turn.

types of Equity

we can jam OESD + FD with 52% equity and it will be very likely +EV because it retains all or most of its equity against the opp's value betting and raising range.

if we did that with a pocket pair with 52% equity, we would get destroyed.