this is the way

I would try paying more attention to showdowns to get a feel for what the pool is doing.

- which is yet another reason to study GTO: the better your understanding of theory, the more mistakes you will be able to spot.

highly applicable GTO / Exploits heuristics

 žirafa 

- recognise close to 0 EV combos in your range - how removing just one combo of bluffs from vilain's range radically changes river calling strategy

- blockers are overrated (unless villain bluffing close to ideal freq)

- heuristics on why small bets on some wet boards are warranted

low board cbet sizing deep dive / heuristics

- "thick value" - we can size up if getting called by hands w low equity (AA on 732r, not AA on 754ss)

- can't bomb AK on A74r either - need to "babysit" lot of our 2nd pair type of hands (7x). can bomb AK4r - villain doesn't have as many outs vs our 2nd pair [in theory. in practice, at SS vs recs - can go full exploit vs recs and bloat the pot w AK when they'll have hard time folding TP]

c-bet sizing and frequency - deep dive

Stop Betting 66% Pot

need for protection (from overcards) w low 2nd pair / nut advantage & no need to protect drives the betsize & freq:

AQ2 - no need to bet many hands, bet big due to nut advantage

K74 - betting more hands - protect mid pairs from overcards

why not bet marginal hands on low boards? 

-> we need some one-pair hands in our checking range

focus area: BB defence (passive bias)

 hit that 3bet button more often - can likely get away w wider range than what solver suggests:

https://youtu.be/l8hg2Xe7ung?si=lah-p0xBCtnzxfnh

- all hands that are mixing 3bets in GTO-land - one can argue that they'll be even higher EV as a pure 3bet

executing JR ideas

this comment from Amos is great. takes a skill / savvy investor to execute right:

"when I trade, I always follow the procedure as the following:

1. the certainty of idea.
what percentage does the idea will have capital return. this is core of sizing the position, that why I exited the position of Spirit stock, Capri, or CLMT much earlier than Jeremy, because I felt uncomfortable about the return, feel a lot more uncertainty.

2.take time to add the position, the price is the key of return

I don’t rush to build a position when new idea come, I usually judge the catalst and margin of safety to determine when to add. even though, I did missed the EML position in lower 0.5, but I manage to keep it in 0.7 to 0.9, and profit them in 1.2, then add back in lower 0.9, because I sensed that the value don’t change, I could take time to add and sell in higher.

take your time , the catalyst doesn’t achieve over one night, the higher the price, the less return, the risk/reward ratio become ugly.

3. don’t concentrated fund to single or two asset. keep a balanced portfolio will survive and flourish.

if Subs feel uncomfortable about the steps listed above, I think Jeremy blog may not suit you, may be index fund have better return in the long run.

it would be wise to reconsider, if you really capable of investing stock, or just buy a index fund and have a happier life. I strongly recommend sub to quit if you don’t feel comfortable about investing stocks, it is naturally not fit for everyone"

bluffing with show down value [Uri pod]

bluffing with show down value:

Zooming in - A72r flop, BTN v BB

Bottom pairs overbetting certain turns (low FD cards, T-Q turns),  and shoving brick rivers 

FD completing rivers - bluffing with Nut FD blocker (Ks)

GS completing rivers - bluffing with low pair blocker

Draws miss river - can check back our bottom pair 

Uri does a good job breaking the concept and heuristics down on this pod

BB defense - when facing polarised range OOP, good hand type to call with is 

on e.g. T turn, KQ, KJ type hands - they beat all the bluffs, and can make super nuts on river and you get to x/shove.

How to construct Bluffing Range

https://blog.gtowizard.com/from-gutshots-to-airballs-choosing-your-bluffs

This is what makes K♠J♦ a nice bluffing candidate (BTN v BB on A97r 2s run out). It may not have much equity when called, but it has a surprising amount of EV because you can anticipate profitable bluffs when you hold the nut flush blocker on spade rivers. Essentially, this hand has implied odds on flush rivers just as a flush draw would. Rivering a blocker is not worth as much as rivering a flush, but both will result in a hand over-realizing its equity with a profitable bet.

Value of fold equity >> Taking the pot down immediately is worth more to some hands than others)

Flush draws have a better chance than airballs of winning if their bluff is called, but by the same token, they gain less from folds. When you successfully bluff a flush draw on the turn, you win a pot that you would have won about 20% of the time on the river anyway. When you take down the same pot with a hand like 6♣4♣, it’s worth more because that hand was never going to improve to a winner.