Post-flop thought process framework

 love how Uri breaks down the flop thought process framework

Pr0digy in BB 3bets KK v UTG, flop is KQJr

BB 3betting polarised range, pretty much KK+, AK and bluffs - UTG hits this board better and BB has to play defensively = small bets or checks

,.. small turn bet on a relative brick 5d - he's keeping the pot small until he sees the full runout 

another great thought process breakdown - how to think about our (calling) range facing a raise post flop:

-> what is going to be my threshold / 0 EV hand?

[SB 3bet vs CO, flop JT2ss, facing a hypothetical cbet raise - clearly KQ would be a call, AK probably too, maybe AQo with or without a spade? the threshold might be around there..

what do we do here with 99 ? it's "macro" question, depending on our Strategy - if we bet everything small here on this flop, than 99 is a bet. if we go for more polarised strat - bet big and check often, then 99 is one of the first hands in the checking range]

max value lines

min 3b w AQo in MP v 3x UTG open

flop QJ4r - plan is to extract max value from his Qx (AQ, 50% KQ, QTs, Q9s = 14 combos) on good runouts - is the pool going to call a river shove with any Qx ?

turn - 2c - once he snap calls - i am discounting his QJs, JJ, 44 (50% = 3-4 combos)

bluff lines

AQ is obv his main (the only?) offsuit combo peeling the flop.. also his tanking on the turn .. looks a lot like AQ

MP opens, hero 3bets in CO, MP calls:    KQ9ss 9c Ac

guess I'm trying to fold TT, 3x JJ, QJs, QTs = 11 combos

vale: AQ, JTs,  50% Axss = 16 combos

https://www.pokerstarsreplayer.com/hands/bd33625274

which line is better as a bluff and which one for value?

calling 3b OOP,  flop A76ss, IP cbets 1/3, hero ?

Bias: looking for excuses NOT to fire the river..

https://www.pokerstarsreplayer.com/hands/bef4bfe6f0

3bet in BB v CO, QJTr great flop for my range, that Ace river threw me of // clear shove, he doesn't have Kx that often - AQ his main offsuite hand

edit: interestingly, in GTO, BB bets river B33% with sets & straight, folding sets to a shove

https://www.pokerstarsreplayer.com/hands/0398cefb1d

BB v BTN, float flop oop w KdTh vs small cbet, x.r turn w GS on J9hh2c 8c 10c 

- didn't even realise i can credibly rep flush on the river 

preflop mechanics

BTN open vs Rec in BB who 3bets small, nitty range AQs+, JJ+:

still call wide, but prefer hands w good implied odds vs dominated hands like AJo:

Theory playlist from GTO Wiz

 some gems in there

PLAYLIST

• Preflop Mechanics | Weekly Coaching
• Stop Mindlessly Betting Half Pot
• 
  

inspiring & fits my style .. (PRODIGY pod)

rising up stakes - untamed, just wanting to bluff ppl .. when playing population who’s overly tight- no need for any subtlety - that can come later. was fearless, with not great technical knowledge - got to 1k nl on party pretty fast. ppl have simple heuristics- if someone puts their stack in, they have it.. 

these days prob at least until 200nl u can be pretty insane?

got Upswing and consumed all the content

.. making thought process more streamlined - not more layered /complicated

https://youtu.be/HEwlsX2o9vc?si=fVngKgS2LddYkBiN&t=2817

https://youtu.be/HEwlsX2o9vc?si=QkwzMTWOcj0s70pO&t=9969

50 + 100NL Zoom - by theWakko Poker Mechanics dude

some good, applicable heuristics and observations:

100NL - that hungry A9 jam SB vBB

open AA UTG, x/c T53r flop, x/r turn - heuristics: better to bluff-catch (i.e. x/c again) w Tx, while x/r w overpair for value 

50NL

• flatting KTo in BB v CO, flop 653 goes x/x, -> start bluffing turn

• general strat in these spot - not to play GTO but go full exploit
• at these stakes, going with the assumption that checks are generally weaker, and bets stronger.. and adjust from there" 

• going for value big x/r w AA CO v BTN on QJxr - recs will overcall w TP, draws..
• flat in BB v CO, big (1.4 -> 7.5bb) x/r CO range bet on dry Q53ccd flop - we have a decent hand to x/r with - K2dd
• SB v BB - 9xx is high enough to start having cbetting, However - like to go for a x/r here w A9 TPTK

• big concept - checking post flop as the PFR with air, rather than barrelling - to allow them to tell us what they have 
• ppl not protecting their x range enough at these stakes
• could do on flop OR turn 
• the EV of check suddenly massively goes up

directly applicable heuristics from Uri (Poker Blueprint teaser)

Uri's new strategy series (released Sep '24) - watch this to get fired up for playing 🔥🔥

especially the "Adjusting to Opponent Reactions" section is golden:

 https://youtu.be/nUzgH-eQn5k?si=nbKfLoxNqaQxIkLW&t=601

written summary here:

https://upswingpoker.com/uri-anti-gto-blueprint/

hand read, hand read as the hand progresses

this one sucked. it's a marginal, few bb's +EV call at best in GTO land, but in small stakes - does he ever have even close to enough bluffs?

Dealt to d0zeer [Ks Ts]

Moezart1993: folds

d0zeer: raises $0.75 to $1.25

ChangHoon Lee: folds

Ankhes: folds

canty1981: raises $4.25 to $5.50

Crazykitten94: folds

d0zeer: calls $4.25

*** FLOP *** [2s Qc As]

canty1981: bets $4.46

d0zeer: calls $4.46

*** TURN *** [2s Qc As] [3s]

canty1981: bets $10

d0zeer: calls $10

*** RIVER *** [2s Qc As 3s] [Qs]

canty1981: bets $33.90 and is all-in

player pool tendencies - update (50NL)

>> pool tends to not go for thin river bets <<

bet sizing - later streets (turn + river)

[fine to slow play flop as long as we make up for it on later streets]

nuts/ nut blocker - you should seriously consider a geometric bet on the turn, no matter how large. If they fold, you probably wouldn’t have won much anyway. When the reward for winning the maximum is so large, that reward is worth pursuing at the expense of missing out on the occasional smaller bet from weaker hands.

The only time extreme, multi-street slow-playing really makes sense is when you block a lot of the hands likely to pay off large bets (e.g. top set blocking TP combos). In those cases, it makes sense to hunt for smaller game with less ambitious bets. 

https://blog.gtowizard.com/maximizing-monsters-in-deep-stacked-scenarios/

GTO rarely uses a geometric strategy before the turn, as ranges are too close and equity too dynamic. Equities crystalize on later streets and ranges become more polar, incentivizing geometric bet sizes. When equities run much closer and can shift more easily on early streets, this is not the case.

just 3bet wide, linear range IP

pool hates folding, but don't want to 4bet light..

 https://youtu.be/vwyBGRgLvXA?si=o9NIBQZzhuwbe7wu&t=401

another gem:

"As we go down the game tree, it becomes more and more difficult for opp to understand what our strategy is"

Uri Reviews Charlie Carrel 100nl Liveplay

 this was something else .. lot's to think about - so many outside the box lines!!

adjust lines vs diff player profiles & manipulate them into doing what u want

Uri's cool line vs rec: 

AK oop, tiny bet flop, turn, check & bluff catch river

highly applicable stuff from Uri

quick in-game exploit adjustments

 https://youtu.be/qzsJrVQezCo?si=jGhCgV5xfz9bjMa6

Man With a Plan - work out your strat on the flop [Uri] [HS thought process ]

flop - totally fine to run the timer down to plan for next street. 

same on the turn

https://youtu.be/CqC4QFzDsyQ?si=ee3Qc3HYDlMJENRq

= Study WHILE you play!

planning the hand out on the flop

 

this is the way

I would try paying more attention to showdowns to get a feel for what the pool is doing.

- which is yet another reason to study GTO: the better your understanding of theory, the more mistakes you will be able to spot.

highly applicable GTO / Exploits heuristics

 žirafa 

- recognise close to 0 EV combos in your range - how removing just ONE combo of bluffs from vilain's range radically changes river calling strategy

- blockers are overrated (unless villain bluffing close to ideal freq)

- heuristics on why small bets on some wet boards are warranted

low board cbet sizing deep dive / heuristics

- "thick value" - we can size up if getting called by hands w low equity (AA on 732r, not AA on 754ss)

- can't bomb AK on A74r either - need to "babysit" lot of our 2nd pair type of hands (7x). can bomb AK4r - villain doesn't have as many outs vs our 2nd pair [in theory. in practice, at SS vs recs - can go full exploit vs recs and bloat the pot w AK when they'll have hard time folding TP]

c-bet sizing and frequency - deep dive

Stop Betting 66% Pot

need for protection (from overcards) w low 2nd pair / nut advantage & no need to protect drives the betsize & freq:

AQ2 - no need to bet many hands, bet big due to nut advantage

K74 - betting more hands - protect mid pairs from overcards

why not bet marginal hands on low boards? 

-> we need some one-pair hands in our checking range

focus area: BB defence (passive bias)

 hit that 3bet button more often - can likely get away w wider range than what solver suggests:

https://youtu.be/l8hg2Xe7ung?si=lah-p0xBCtnzxfnh

- all hands that are mixing 3bets in GTO-land - one can argue that they'll be even higher EV as a pure 3bet

executing JR ideas

this comment from Amos is great. takes a skill / savvy investor to execute right:

"when I trade, I always follow the procedure as the following:

1. the certainty of idea.
what percentage does the idea will have capital return. this is core of sizing the position, that why I exited the position of Spirit stock, Capri, or CLMT much earlier than Jeremy, because I felt uncomfortable about the return, feel a lot more uncertainty.

2.take time to add the position, the price is the key of return

I don’t rush to build a position when new idea come, I usually judge the catalst and margin of safety to determine when to add. even though, I did missed the EML position in lower 0.5, but I manage to keep it in 0.7 to 0.9, and profit them in 1.2, then add back in lower 0.9, because I sensed that the value don’t change, I could take time to add and sell in higher.

take your time , the catalyst doesn’t achieve over one night, the higher the price, the less return, the risk/reward ratio become ugly.

3. don’t concentrated fund to single or two asset. keep a balanced portfolio will survive and flourish.

if Subs feel uncomfortable about the steps listed above, I think Jeremy blog may not suit you, may be index fund have better return in the long run.

it would be wise to reconsider, if you really capable of investing stock, or just buy a index fund and have a happier life. I strongly recommend sub to quit if you don’t feel comfortable about investing stocks, it is naturally not fit for everyone"

bluffing with show down value [Uri pod]

bluffing with show down value:

Zooming in - A72r flop, BTN v BB

Bottom pairs overbetting certain turns (low FD cards, T-Q turns),  and shoving brick rivers 

FD completing rivers - bluffing with Nut FD blocker (Ks)

GS completing rivers - bluffing with low pair blocker

Draws miss river - can check back our bottom pair 

Uri does a good job breaking the concept and heuristics down on this pod

BB defense - when facing polarised range OOP, good hand type to call with is 

on e.g. T turn, KQ, KJ type hands - they beat all the bluffs, and can make super nuts on river and you get to x/shove.

How to construct Bluffing Range

https://blog.gtowizard.com/from-gutshots-to-airballs-choosing-your-bluffs

This is what makes K♠J♦ a nice bluffing candidate (BTN v BB on A97r 2s run out). It may not have much equity when called, but it has a surprising amount of EV because you can anticipate profitable bluffs when you hold the nut flush blocker on spade rivers. Essentially, this hand has implied odds on flush rivers just as a flush draw would. Rivering a blocker is not worth as much as rivering a flush, but both will result in a hand over-realizing its equity with a profitable bet.

Value of fold equity >> Taking the pot down immediately is worth more to some hands than others)

Flush draws have a better chance than airballs of winning if their bluff is called, but by the same token, they gain less from folds. When you successfully bluff a flush draw on the turn, you win a pot that you would have won about 20% of the time on the river anyway. When you take down the same pot with a hand like 6♣4♣, it’s worth more because that hand was never going to improve to a winner.

Raise size cheat sheet

 

balance between me time and family time

 this

exploitative 101

• Players who don’t study GTO gameplay over-bluff more spots than you might think
• Studying our continuing thresholds for common spots in equilibrium helps us identify which hands we will first need to adjust our strategy with to exploit their tendencies
• Studying the GTO strategy of our opponents helps us identify where they might be deviating from it

fun exploits to try:

that 86o 3b v rec in SB open, followed by 1/4 pot cbet w near zero equity on AT7 mono. gotta be careful in case he's calling 3bets with offsuit Ax

Jako: aggressive in spots where population overfolds - The easiest example is if you think villain is range betting flop on a texture where they’re supposed to check high frequency, then they will struggle to appropriately defend their range if they face raise.

tight fold vs under-bluffed spot/line

randomising / multiple lines with the same EV

So I don't typically randomise - it's not really necessary in an anonymous pool particularly. I'll generally think about what theory will do and if I think there are multiple lines with the same EV I'll say that and then just pick one. Often though you'll get spots where two lines are ok in theory but one line is preferred as an exploit, in which case i'll take that line 100% of the time. 

micro stakes imbalances:

- equity driven betting

- not enough bluffs when betting/raising > pot ? (betting 15 into 10, bluff needs to work 60% percent, opp getting 15/(15 + 25) = 37,5% on his call -> hero needs 37,5% bluffs in betting range

board coverage

are certain lines over or under saturated with certain hand classes?

for ex.:

- flush completing run outs - are they using a specific line for their FDs?

- paired flops

- top-heavy 3bet ranges (not enough SCs, wheel Aces)

-> that is why solver puts various hand classes in each line (in practice most humans tend to not do that -> they have a poor board coverage), so it can represent strong hands on a wide variety of boards

GTO Heuristics (the-right-way-to-think-about-protection, the-mechanics-of-c-bet-sizing)

 

Mechanics of (c)bet sizing:

https://docs.google.com/presentation/d/1NyqpbGrVDTQuhKIQ_5YGIXXE6WIr-fj6QqtlPz9iGWA/edit?usp=sharing

https://blog.gtowizard.com/the-right-way-to-think-about-protection/

https://blog.gtowizard.com/the-mechanics-of-c-bet-sizing/

poker mafs 101 - key ratios

key ratios (Tombos21)

Pot odds = Risk / Reward of calling = River bluffing %

Alpha = Risk /Reward of bluffing = 1 - MDF

EV = Win%[Reward] - Lose%[Risk]

core concepts

10 core concepts

Continuation / Value Thresholds

Hero BB v BTN open, flop JT6ss, BTN cbets 75% - know where your continuation threshold is - if they bet only 1/3 pot, we are continuing much wider.

- try to find the shape of the range

Maximise EV, not how often you win a pot

sometimes the best play involves taking a line that either wins a huge pot or more often than not loses a small pot (e.g., don't bee too focused on "protecting" made hands from draws, etc. in order to sacrifice the most +EV line for your overall range)

Nut advantage & Polarized range

The nut advantage dictates how much you can polarize, and how large you can bet. Betting larger and more aggressively narrows your opponent’s range quickly, so it’s important that your “value” hands can extract money from villain’s value hands after triple barreling. For that reason, BTN must use a polarized strategy consisting of nuts and bluffs. If BTN were to do this with medium-strength hands they would simply fold out worse and get called by better.

with middling equity advantage, we push our middling equity using small-medium bet sizes -> Bet size is directly related to nut advantage

It’s easier to over-bluff rivers

as the optimal value-to-bluff ratios are more restrictive (towards bluffing) than on earlier streets.

- if you find yourself on the river facing a bet, try to estimate if your opponent is bluffing enough according to this cheat sheet. If they are bluffing just a single combo more than they should, all of our indifferent bluff catchers become profitable calls and vice versa (we always fold when they are under-bluffing even slightly).

- when villain has over-bluffed earlier streets, they arrive on the river with more bluffs than in theory, making it even easier to get out of line on the river.

The Ultimate Guide to Studying GTO Poker Solutions / Exploitative 101

Underlying principles:

- studying GTO - figure out why it tells you to play certain range in a certain way

PRO TIP: compare the ranges - range asymmetries reveal most of the reasons (the why) behind strategies -> allows you to hone in on your heuristics

Simplifying:

- Clumping by hand class

- Thresholds: 

                        - what class of hands am I folding? look at Filters, see at what hand class the blue line starts

- Heuristics:

    - betting more often lower PP than higher PP on A33r type of flop - for protection/fold equity to fold out hands like J9. with KK we don't mind him hitting his pair on turn, river

Hot keys

Post-flop mode: Shift+left/right increases/dec turn card value - to experiment an see how are the strategies changing - see how different run outs affect different portions of your range

fish & reg profiling (NL25 zoom poool)

equity-driven betting post flop

regs:

3bet ranges IP: 

    - AQ, AK in CO v MP open

squeeze IP:    AK (2x)

4bet OOP:    KK, AQ

5bet shove: 

- BTN/CO - QQ, AK, 

donks 1/2 pot - rivered flush

ch/r my 1/3 pot range bet - gives up

Set: 

- in 3b pot IP- calls cbet on AT4ss, check back turn, raise river all-in

- raise flop 3way

fish:

SRP:

- floats overcards - fish opens BTN, checks back 8xx flop, calls 1/2 pot bet brick turn w naked KQ

- donks 1/2 pot flop - folds to 3x raise; air

3bet pot

- min clicks flop - TP (KQ on K94r)

PF 3bet ranges 

- min clicks KK, ..

- 4bet all-in OOP 60bb deep - 66

dozeer hands

my open HJ vs BTN flat K8s

flop KJ9s cbet/call, turn 2s bet/raise/call, river Js completes my flush

Hero? 

Villain range on river: 

hands i beat that call shove: 3x QTs, 3x QTo (out of 12 - not flatting all pre, some raise flop), 1x lower fd that bluff-raised turn (e.g. T8s) = 7-8 combos (K9s?)

beat me: 2x 99, 1x Axss that he chose to play this way (out of AQs,ATs,A9s), 2x KJo (out of 4 he chose to not raise flop with), 2x J9s, 1x QTs = 8 combos

->> more of his combos that call my shove have me beat, and he's only going to bet hands that have me beat

things to consider: I am blocking some of his KJ; he's got very few fd i beat that took this line (if any!?); rake if i shove. turn pot odds: 26%

=>> block & fold to raise the best

High Stakes Poker Coaching: How To Destroy NL100 (Full Length) [ShowOfForce]

 NL100

at these stakes ppl will really show you what they have with their sizing

(facing 1/2 pot riv block bet BTN v BB ww JJ on 86s85s3s - I'd raise for value)

stab 1/4 pot 

(flat call OTB, 3 way, QTd on 493d, checked to us. to get them off of overcards

check back w/ no bd draw. SB range much stronger here than BB flat call. with bd draw I'd start betting

K8s  CO open vs SB call, flop AQ3 

turn Q - our K is quite good here because we block KQ and he'd 3bet some of his AQ. don't mind attacking here with our K blocker his small sizing

be more flexible with sizings against weaker players

be more consistent with sizings against regs

bet 4/5 pot on AT8 with A8 to build the pot on good runouts

i like to overbet turn for value

recognise spots where his range is clearly capped, AND ours is not. 

- that 3way  Q92sss, BB v BTN & SB - capped once they both check, SB twice. 

- good spot to be overly aggressive with any sort of equity (gutshot + overcard,..)

- betting 3/4 turn once checked to me, then BIG on river - 3x pot

ship it: LP Longple on improvement

ship it: LP Longple on improvement: "The biggest thing i done so far probably is started thinking on my own, reading hands and ranges from simple logic breaking it down fr...